Global economy holds steady, but Hormuz remains the biggest risk
Stagflation can be avoided for the time being
The global economy appears to be avoiding a period of stagflation despite recent geopolitical tensions. The initial energy and trade shock caused by the conflict surrounding Iran has been absorbed better than initially feared, and according to Atradius, global growth will reach 2.4 per cent in 2026. However, the situation remains fragile. A new escalation in the Strait of Hormuz could once again drive up oil prices sharply and slow global growth to 1.9 per cent in 2026 and 1.4 per cent in 2027. Europe, in particular, is vulnerable to such a new energy shock, whilst the United States is better positioned thanks to domestic energy production and the wave of investment driven by artificial intelligence.
The conflict involving Iran has severely disrupted energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Nevertheless, the price of oil and fertiliser has fallen slightly again in recent months, thanks to reduced demand and market adjustments, a partial recovery in shipping under military escort and alternative supply routes from outside the Gulf region. As a result, inflation expectations have also stabilised and the risk of a prolonged combination of high inflation and low growth has diminished.
The Strait of Hormuz remains the Achilles’ heel of the global economy
The greatest downside risk remains the Strait of Hormuz. A significant proportion of global oil and gas flows passes through this narrow sea route, meaning that a prolonged blockade would have almost immediate consequences for energy prices, transport costs and inflation.
If tensions between the United States and Iran escalate further and the strait remains closed until the fourth quarter, the price of Brent crude could rise to more than $160 per barrel, according to Atradius’s downside scenario. The economic consequences would be significant: global growth could then fall to 1.9 per cent in 2026 and 1.4 per cent in 2027, levels that Atradius classifies as recessionary.
Furthermore, a new energy shock would coincide with global trade that is already losing momentum. Following remarkably strong growth of 4.6 per cent in 2025, Atradius expects global trade growth to remain below 2 per cent in 2026. Higher energy prices, weaker import demand and ongoing uncertainty over trade policy are hampering international flows of goods. A recovery to around 3 per cent is expected in 2027.
Europe is paying a higher price for the energy shock
The economic impact is not the same everywhere. The eurozone is considerably more vulnerable to high energy prices than the United States, as Europe is much more dependent on imported oil and gas.
For the eurozone, Atradius forecasts growth of just 0.4 per cent in 2026, compared with 1.5 per cent in 2025. In 2027, growth could pick up again to 1.5 per cent. Higher energy prices are not only putting pressure on household purchasing power, but are also increasing companies’ production costs, thereby weakening consumption, investment and the competitive position of European industry.
For the Netherlands, the outlook is slightly more favourable, but also moderate. Atradius expects economic growth of 1.0 per cent in 2026 and 1.3 per cent in 2027. Dutch exports are holding up reasonably well despite US import tariffs, but uncertainty surrounding international trade policy is making companies more cautious about new investments.
AI keeps US growth on track
The United States stands out positively from most other developed economies. Atradius forecasts growth of 2.2 per cent in 2026 and 2.6 per cent in 2027.
The US economy is benefiting from three key drivers of growth: significant domestic energy production, expansionary fiscal policy and substantial investment in AI, technology and data centres. As a result, the US is less vulnerable to higher international energy prices, whilst the economy is receiving a powerful investment boost from the technology sector.
Europe, in particular, is vulnerable to another energy shock, whilst the United States is better positioned due to its domestic energy production and continued AI-driven investment.
However, there is a downside to this strength. US growth is increasingly driven by a relatively limited number of sectors and household groups. Technology, energy exports and consumption by higher-income households account for a large proportion of growth. This also makes the economy more vulnerable should any of these growth drivers weaken.
Europe risks falling further behind in AI
It is precisely in the field of AI that the gap with Europe is becoming increasingly apparent. Whilst billions are being invested in the United States in data centres, chips, infrastructure and new applications, a comparable wave of investment in the eurozone has yet to materialise.
This is relevant because AI not only creates a technology sector, but can also boost productivity in existing businesses. A wider application of artificial intelligence can make processes more efficient, reduce costs and help businesses deploy staff and capital more productively.
According to Atradius, this presents a significant opportunity for Europe to strengthen its economic resilience. Dependence on imports is not set to disappear in the short term, but higher productivity achieved through artificial intelligence can help to strengthen earning capacity. This requires greater investment in digital infrastructure and, above all, in the practical application of AI within businesses.
Stability in energy markets remains a key factor
The picture painted by the Economic Outlook is therefore a nuanced one. A global stagflation scenario has been avoided for the time being, and the economy appears to be more resilient than was feared a few months ago. However, the underlying risks have not disappeared.
The global economy rests on a fragile balance: falling energy prices, ongoing investment in AI and sufficient domestic demand must offset the economic headwinds caused by trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainty. A further disruption to energy supplies via the Strait of Hormuz could quickly upset that balance.
For Europe, the challenge therefore lies on two fronts: reducing vulnerability to external energy shocks whilst simultaneously strengthening its own earning capacity. Faster adoption of new technologies, such as AI, can make all the difference in structurally increasing productivity, investment and competitiveness.