UK trade 10 years after the Brexit referendum
Based on trade data from the UK Office for National Statistics, total UK trade (exports plus imports) has grown by an average of just 0.9% per year since June 2016.
Ten years ago, on 23 June 2026, the British voted to leave the European Union. Although UK trade did not collapse following the Brexit referendum, it has lost momentum. Based on trade data from the UK Office for National Statistics, total UK trade (exports plus imports) has grown by an average of just 0.9% per year since June 2016, compared with 3.0% in the period before the referendum (Figure 1). Trade with non-EU partners has risen more sharply than trade with the EU, and is 12% above pre-referendum levels, whilst trade between the UK and the EU is 5% higher. This points to a gradual reorientation, but not to a complete shift away from Europe.
The EU still accounts for almost half of total UK trade, just 1.8 percentage points less than before the Brexit referendum. The change is more clearly visible on the import side, where the EU’s share has fallen by 3.6 percentage points, whilst the export share has remained virtually unchanged. After the EU, the UK’s largest trading partners are the United States (12 per cent) and China (9 per cent). Trade with these markets has largely stagnated in recent years. There is only limited evidence that the UK has managed to secure greater negotiating power or growth opportunities through bilateral relationships.
The British government’s promise of faster growth through new trade agreements has so far yielded only limited results. Most post-Brexit agreements build on existing EU terms or relate to a small proportion of UK trade. Agreements with Australia, New Zealand and other countries in the Indo-Pacific are strategically relevant, but represent only a modest share of current trade.
The bigger question is whether the ongoing negotiations on agreements with the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) countries and India can substantially improve market access. For the time being, the empirical evidence points to slower trade growth and only a limited reorientation towards trading partners outside the EU. Europe continues to play a central role in UK trade and the UK’s supply chains.
Post-Brexit free trade agreements
The UK has more than 70 trade agreements, most of which replicate the trade terms of existing EU agreements with third countries. The most significant progress made on other major free trade agreements since Brexit includes:
The most significant trade agreement concluded to date (in terms of trade volume) is the most recent one with the GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council). Of the agreements that have actually entered into force, the most progress has been made with Indo-Pacific countries: Australia, New Zealand and the CPTPP (particularly Malaysia and Brunei). The CPTPP is a free trade agreement between economies around the Pacific. Taken together, however, these still account for only a small share of 1.3 per cent of UK trade.
Trade between the UK and the Netherlands
Dutch exports of goods to the United Kingdom have lagged behind since the Brexit referendum. Since the referendum, Dutch exports to the UK have fallen by 7.8%, whilst imports from the UK have risen by 32.2%.
A closer look at the trade data shows that re-exports from the Netherlands, in particular, have lagged behind. These are exports of foreign-made products which, after undergoing minor processing in the Netherlands, are re-exported abroad. Re-exports to the UK have fallen by 10.9% since the Brexit referendum, whilst the total value of re-exports to all countries has doubled. In particular, re-exports of telephones, modems and routers to the UK have fallen sharply. It appears that the UK is now importing these goods more frequently directly from China or other South-East Asian countries, as total UK imports have remained largely stable.
The Netherlands earns much more per euro traded from the export of goods manufactured domestically than from re-exports. Exports of Dutch-manufactured goods to the UK have risen by 43.9% since the Brexit referendum.
References
CBS (2024), Exports of goods to the United Kingdom have lagged behind since Brexit, https://www.cbs.nl/nl-nl/nieuws/2024/37/goederenexport-naar-verenigd-koninkrijk-blijft-achter-sinds-brexit
Nevertheless, this growth is less outspoken than the global increase in Dutch exports (60.8%). The Netherlands mainly exports refined petroleum products to the UK. Other important Dutch-made export products include flowers and plants, as well as vegetables and root vegetables.
Conclusion
Although UK trade did not collapse following the Brexit referendum, it has lost momentum. Since June 2016, annual trade growth has been significantly lower than before, with the sharpest slowdown seen in trade with the EU. New global trade agreements have not delivered a significant growth spurt, as their economic weight is too limited. Brexit is also affecting trade relations with the Netherlands, with Dutch re-exports to the UK coming under particular pressure.
Theo Smid – Senior Economist
Dana Bodnar – Senior Economist