Meet … Niels de Hoog
In our ‘Meet the…’ section, colleagues offer a glimpse into their work, their background and what keeps them busy outside work. In this edition, we speak to Niels de Hoog, Senior Economist at Atradius DSB. He talks about country risks, geopolitics and the challenge of looking far into the future for long-term export projects, as well as running, reading and a memorable dragon boat race in Hong Kong
Could you tell us a bit about yourself?
I certainly can! I grew up in the Westland, the Netherlands’ export hub for greenhouse horticulture. So my connection to the world of exporters began at an early age. In my younger years, I spent my summer holidays picking tomatoes and peppers. It was great to roll up my sleeves and earn some money.
My main hobbies are sport and reading, two things I can combine perfectly with my work as an economist. At Atradius DSB, we’ve set up a proper climate book club, which meets several times a year to discuss a book or article on the impact of climate change with interested colleagues. My choice of books in my spare time also regularly has an economic slant. My favourites are books that show, in an ironic or satirical way, how human behaviour determines economic outcomes, such as *The Informant* by Kurt Eichenwald and *The Bonfire of the Vanities* by Tom Wolfe.
I wholeheartedly recommend combining sport with work. Every Tuesday at lunchtime, I go for a brisk run with my colleague Theo. We do this, amongst other things, to ensure we’re fit enough to take part in the running events sponsored by Atradius, such as the B. Business Run here at the Riekerpolder office park (see photo). Of course, it’s also just great fun! My most memorable – work-related – sporting achievement was taking part in a traditional dragon boat race in Hong Kong alongside other Dutch expats. Against all odds, our ‘Dutch Dragons’ boat won race after race and ultimately the final as well.
How long have you been working at Atradius, and what did you do before that?
My ten-year anniversary is just around the corner. I’ve never worked for a company for that long before. With the money I’d saved whilst working in greenhouses, I began my career with an adventure in Hong Kong as a sales representative for a company that exports promotional gifts to Europe, ranging from simple pens bearing a company logo to luxury watches and patented gadgets. Before joining Atradius DSB, my longest stint – over five years – was at DNB, where I worked as an economist in the monetary policy department. I landed right in the thick of it when the credit crisis broke out in 2008/2009. Later, during the Greek sovereign debt crisis (2015) and Brexit (2016), I worked for another monetary authority, namely the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA). Among other things, my role there was to analyse the implications of these crises. In between, I spent four years working as a consultant specialising in executive remuneration, which gave me a unique insight into corporate boardrooms.
What exactly do you do as an Economist at Atradius DSB, and what do you enjoy most about your role?
Working for an export credit insurer, I view economic developments from a completely different perspective to the impact on interest rates and the economic cycle, as I was accustomed to at the central banks. When carrying out country risk analyses, creditworthiness is key. Thinking that I had learnt everything there was to know as an economist therefore turned out to be naïve. I was confronted with concepts that were unfamiliar to me, such as ‘import cover’. I soon realised that this measure is used by country economists to assess whether a country has sufficient foreign currency reserves to continue paying for its imports. Instead of advising on interest rate policy, I consider the cover policy that we, as an insurer, set for a country. Furthermore, a country risk analysis is not limited to the economy but also requires a thorough understanding of aspects such as a country’s political stability, its geopolitical environment and the security situation. Almost ten years on, I am still learning something new every day.
What do you see as the biggest challenge in your work?
There are several major challenges. One of them is my country portfolio. I monitor countries in North Africa, the Middle East and East Africa – countries that are therefore subject to significant risks. This year, I have my hands full with the conflict between the US and Iran. This does not only directly affect countries in the Middle East. Many of the African countries in my portfolio are indirectly vulnerable to global spillovers via rising energy and commodity prices.
Perhaps the greatest challenge is looking far into the future. Many of the projects we insure have a time horizon of ten years or more. A great deal can happen over such a period. New trends and developments are constantly emerging and can have major consequences for countries’ creditworthiness. Think of the energy transition, climate change or the rise of artificial intelligence. This keeps us on our toes within the Economic Research Team: we are constantly learning and sharing our knowledge.
What is the best thing about working at Atradius DSB?
Have you ever been there yourself? I’m sometimes asked this question after I’ve enthusiastically presented a thorough analysis of a country. Unfortunately, I usually have to reply ‘no’, or ‘only on holiday’. For me, as a ‘desk researcher’, the occasional work-related trips abroad are the icing on the cake. It’s not that such a visit fundamentally changes the picture you have of a country, but it does add some colour to it.
When we do get the chance to travel, we try to make the most of it. At the end of 2024, for example, my colleague Greetje and I were in Riyadh, where we attended a meeting of the Berne Union, an international network of public and private credit insurers. As well as taking part in an exciting panel discussion on critical raw materials alongside, amongst others, the Saudi Deputy Minister of Mining Resources Management (see photo), we also spoke with colleagues from the local export credit insurer, Saudi Exim.
In terms of my work, I find it stimulating that, in addition to writing country risk analyses, I am given the opportunity to carry out thematic research and publish the findings on our website or elsewhere. The results of this research can be seen, for example, in the Energy Outlook and the regional report on the Middle East that we publish periodically.
Niels de Hoog – Senior Economist
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